YS Jagan Can't Win Even 20 MLA Seats?

It was neck and neck situation between TDP and Ys Jagan's YSRCP during 2014 general elections. TDP won the poll battle by a narrow margin of 2.6%. While TDP got the vote share of 46.3%, YCP was satisfied with 44.47% vote share. 

Had Janasena not been emerged as a strong political force, it could have been the tug of war situation between TDP and YSRCP to win 2019's elections. 

Right now, it's being made out that TDP has been facing an intense anti incumbency and would lose its vote share 15% to 20%. Also, this vote share is expected to be distributed between Janasena and YSRCP apart from the fixed vote bank share of both the political parties. 

However, there is another version that the TDP wouldn't lose much percent of vote share as is expected. Instead, YSRCP would turn out to be the victim losing its vote share to the Janasena. In such case, the face to face fight will happen between Janasena and TDP. YCP won 67 seats with a vote share of 44.47% in 2014. If above calculations are proved right YCP would not only lose its vote share considerably but also its winning MLA seats would be confined to 20. Let's wait and see which version will come into reality.