Will Local Results Reflect Assembly Results?

The results of municipal elections have been out today. The TDP has a clear lead over other parities in Seemandhra. As per the reports, it is leading in 58 municipalities while YSRCP is leading in just 17 municipalities.In Telangana, the Congress party is leading in 22 municipalities while the TRS was satisfied with the majority in 11 municipalities. Every analyst is now on the process of analysing whether these result reflect the results of general elections or not. Let's have an analysis. 

SEEMANDHRA ANALYSIS: 

* The results of only 27% of urban voters have been out out today. If we want to know the opinion of 73% of rural voters, we have to wait for tomorrow, as the counting of ZPTCs and MPTCs will be done on tomorrow.

* YSRCP has great following in rural areas than Urban areas.

* The results of local body elections are generally based on local problems and local issues.

* The congress party in Seemandhra area has not contested in many places. Most of the congress' workers reportedly worked in favour of the TDP. In assembly elections, congress contested in all the constituencies.

* As far as general elections are concerned, voters consider the CM candidate's craze and charisma. YS Jagan is being said more charismatic personality than CBN for now.

* TDP-BJP tie up was not happened at the time of municipal polls. The TDP is likely to lose 3% to 5% of muslim votes due to this tie up. This may affect the prospects of the TDP in greater levels.

* It remains to be seen whether Pawan Kalyan's factor worked either positively or negatively to TDP. He did not extend his support to the TDP at the time of municipal polls.

* Consolidating all these factors, Municipal Results will not affect the results of general elections.

 TELANGANA ANALYSIS:

* The leading of the congress party in Telangana is definitely a big shock to the media and the people of Seemandhra. They hoped TRS' victory in Telangana.

* Both the TRS and the Congress have good cadre in rural areas of Telangana.

* Since Pawan Kalyan abused KCR, his factor may workout favorably to the TRS in general elections to some extent. Yet again, the Congress party in Telangana is very strong and the people may give clear lead to the congress party in general elections.

* Sonia Gandhi's craze as 'Telangana Devatha' neutralizes KCR's craze. So, there maybe no difference of results in assembly elections.

* Consolidating the above factors, though Municipal Results may not affect the assembly results, due to other factors, congres  will have little edge over TRS in assembly elections. 

BOTTOM-LINE In spite of all the above odds, if the TDP in Seemandhra and Congress in Telangana wins in ZPTCs and MPTCs as well, the probability of getting the victory by the same political parties in assembly elections will be increased.