Political instability: Jagan holds the key

Ys Jaganmohan Reddy holds the key to the stability factor in Andhra Pradesh is the billion dollar question today.With a morbid compulsion to occupy the Chief Minister’s chair and having missed the bus twice in the past when the time was ripe, the former MP from Kadapa and YSR's son Ys Jaganmohan Reddy who resumed his 'Odarpu Yatra' in the coastal Andhra is at the centre stage again as some of the Congress dominated districts were tilting in his favour.

His recent decision to go on hunger strike in support of the rain-hit farmers even before launching his party has managed to send strong signals to the Congress. These strong are that he may topple the state government what with some of the Legislators in the coastal Andhra turning to his side owing to the 'pressure' employed on them by Jagan's brigade.

Cabinet Minister Botsa Satyanarayana too quite specifically raised a point, which may be quite unpalatable to Jagan, that he and his colleagues in the Congress were the real successors to YSR. Mr Satyanarayana added that that Jagan's electronic and print media cannot scare them.

Mr Satyanarayana’s words can be seen as an admittance that Jagan's breeze was turning into a gale. Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy did no better as his performance in the just concluded Session raised many an eyebrow. It was not as good as expected particularly from his own colleagues as he did not stand his grounds.

Is Jagan sure that this time he will take things in his stride? He is the real thorn in the flesh of the High Command which is burning the midnight oil whether to have President's rule or to go for a change of guard or negate the chances of Jagan's rise.

The situation is quite volatile and unpredictable in the wake of the Srikrishna Panel report that is to be tabled by December 31. The panel has already aired its signals that no violence is reasonable after tabling the report. The state DGP Aravinda Rao also gave a clear signal that any instigating or provocative comments or speeches would be viewed seriously. The state was also trying to deploy forces sensing trouble from TRS and others.

This comes in the background of TRS announcing recently that they would resort to intensify their struggle if any 'negative' report is tabled. The TRS was irked by DGP's statement and they reacted to it. what now.

In case Jagan became more than offensive with his entourage in full swing for toppling the government, will the High Command opt for a Central rule, if so can they afford mid-term poll and what are the repercussions in this situation.

To add fuel to the fire, TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu has become aggressive by launching his hunger strike.

Ideally, there are three more years to go for kiran. But will he last till 2014. If not what is in store for the state with unstable governments?